Key Findings
- Critical mineral prices have reached crisis levels.
- Defense procurement faces unprecedented material constraints.
- US strategic response accelerates with massive government intervention.
- China weaponizes supply chain dominance through export controls.
- Defense supply chain vulnerabilities create exploitable attack vectors (MEDIUM confidence, 70-75%).
Executive Summary
Surging critical mineral prices, driven by a 557% tungsten price increase since February 2025 and a 17.5% rare earth price surge in February 2026 alone, are fundamentally reshaping defense procurement strategies amid escalating geopolitical competition between the US and China. The US response includes the February 2026 launch of Project Vault, a $12 billion critical minerals stockpile initiative, alongside new defense procurement regulations restricting Chinese materials starting January 1, 2027 . China's dominance of 61% of global rare earth mining and 91% of refining capacity, combined with recent export controls and dual-use restrictions, creates strategic leverage that adversaries can exploit to disrupt Western defense supply chains .