Calibrated analyses covering disruption across geopolitics, cybersecurity, finance, technology, energy, defense, supply-chain, and climate.
13 analyses
The Trump administration's phased termination of PEPFAR funding for South Africa, confirmed by the State Department in June 2026, is translating a bilateral political dispute.
Ukraine has intensified drone attacks on Crimea, targeting the peninsula's supply routes and triggering a fuel crisis.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted roughly 16 million barrels per day of petroleum products, crude, condensates, refined products, LPG.
Oil prices posted their largest-ever monthly gain in March following the most severe oil supply shock in history.
The U.S. Treasury's designation of Cuba's state oil company Cupet on June 11, 2026.
The Strait of Hormuz closure since February 2026 represents more than a temporary supply disruption.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has become the largest disruption to world energy supply since the 1970s energy crisis.
Ukraine's systematic campaign against Russian oil refinery capacity represents the most significant economic warfare operation of the 21st century.
Structural energy demand driven by Singapore's AI-first economic strategy and regional digital infrastructure expansion is forcing policymakers to prepare for prolonged energy.
Iranian missile attacks have triggered the largest oil supply shock in modern history.
Oil futures markets are pricing a temporary disruption through sharp backwardation.
Iran turned the Strait of Hormuz into a geopolitical weapon, selectively granting transit to allies while costing the global economy up to $20 billion per day.
Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted 20% of global oil trade, revealing how chokepoint control lets weaker states impose cascading costs on major powers without direct.