Public Track Record
Every forecast we made, resolved or pending.
Transparent record of every forecast published by Mapshock's analytical engine. Outcomes are resolved against public evidence — right, wrong, or indeterminate.
Awaiting first resolution
Mapshock publishes predictions with stated probabilities, resolution dates, and falsifiable terms. When the deadline arrives, we record the outcome publicly — right, wrong, or indeterminate. No predictions have reached their resolution date yet. The earliest is September 15, 2026.
When predictions resolve, this page shows accuracy by confidence band (Brier score) — the calibrated-forecast moat number. Until then, the in-flight list below is the honest signal: what we've committed to publicly.
In flight
181
Earliest resolution
September 15, 2026
Still tracking
181 forecasts in progress — outcomes pending. Showing the first 3 below — sign in to see the rest.
A second major bombing or armed attack in Damascus or a Syrian provincial capital kills at least five people within 60 days of August 2, 2026.
Made 2026-08-02 · resolves by 2026-10-01 · we said more likely than not · ~60%
From: Damascus courthouse bombing kills nine as Syria's new government faces security testAnalysis
By end of 2026, at least one major European nuclear utility will announce a new or expanded long-term uranium supply contract with an Australian producer (BHP, Paladin Energy, or Boss Energy) that includes deliveries through 2030 or later.
Made 2026-08-01 · resolves by 2026-12-31 · we said more likely than not · ~60%
From: European Nuclear Fuel Supply Diversification: India-Australia Uranium Export Agreement and Third-Party Sourcing ImplicationsArticle
Meta's Content Seal watermark detection system fails to identify AI-generated images after standard image transformations (cropping, compression, resizing) at rates exceeding 50%, rendering it non-compliant with EU AI Act Article 50 synthetic media transparency requirements by the August 2, 2026 enforcement deadline.
Made 2026-08-01 · resolves by 2026-09-15 · we said likely · ~70%
From: AI-Generated Content Detection Failures and Synthetic Media Authentication Gaps in Digital Verification SystemsArticle
178 more pending forecasts visible after sign-in.
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