Public Track Record
Every forecast we made, resolved or pending.
Transparent record of every forecast published by Mapshock's analytical engine. Outcomes are resolved against public evidence — right, wrong, or indeterminate.
Awaiting first resolution
Mapshock publishes predictions with stated probabilities, resolution dates, and falsifiable terms. When the deadline arrives, we record the outcome publicly — right, wrong, or indeterminate. No predictions have reached their resolution date yet. The earliest is September 14, 2026.
When predictions resolve, this page shows accuracy by confidence band (Brier score) — the calibrated-forecast moat number. Until then, the in-flight list below is the honest signal: what we've committed to publicly.
In flight
74
Earliest resolution
September 14, 2026
Still tracking
74 forecasts in progress — outcomes pending. Showing the first 3 below — sign in to see the rest.
Global AI-associated data center electricity demand will reach 10 GW by end of 2026, constrained by grid interconnection queues, transformer lead times, and regional capacity bottlenecks rather than by AI model development or chip availability.
Made 2026-06-18 · resolves by 2027-02-28 · we said more likely than not · ~60%
From: AI Energy Infrastructure Bottleneck: Data Center Power Demand and Global Electricity System Capacity ConstraintsArticle
By end of 2026, the US federal government will issue binding regulatory requirements (statute, executive order with enforcement mechanism, or formal agency rule) mandating independent third-party audits or pre-deployment government review for large language models meeting specified compute thresholds.
Made 2026-06-17 · resolves by 2026-12-31 · we said likely · ~70%
From: Large Language Model Operational Governance and Government Risk Assessment StandardsArticle
At least one non-US G7 member will announce a formal technology sovereignty initiative or allied AI access framework outside US control by end of 2026.
Made 2026-06-17 · resolves by 2026-12-31 · we said more likely than not · ~60%
From: U.S.-G7 Divergence on China Economic and Strategic PostureArticle
71 more pending forecasts visible after sign-in.
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