2 analyses covering trade — source-graded evidence, competing hypotheses, and calibrated confidence.
Executive Summary: Maritime chokepoints have emerged as primary vectors for geopolitical coercion in 2026 (HIGH confidence, 85-90%), fundamentally altering the strategic calculus for state actors who…
78% of UK CEOs have altered their strategic investment plans in the last 12 months due to geopolitical or trade policy developments , signaling a fundamental recalibration of international commerce ar