Key Findings
- Tungsten Supply Concentration Creates Strategic Leverage (MODERATE confidence, 70-80%).
- Masan's Mine Sale Signals Geopolitical Contestation (MODERATE confidence, 70-80%).
- U.S. Strategy Emphasizes Allied Coordination Over Domestic Sourcing (MODERATE confidence, 70-80%).
- Vietnam's Balancing Strategy Prioritizes Autonomy Over Alignment (MODERATE confidence, 70-80%).
- Defense Demand Drives Structural Price Support (MODERATE confidence, 70-80%).
Executive Summary
Vietnam's Nui Phao tungsten mine, operated by Masan High-Tech Materials, accounts for nearly 30% of global tungsten resources outside China and positions Vietnam as the world's second-largest tungsten producer . This strategic positioning creates a critical inflection point in U.S.-China competition for defense-critical minerals. As of February 28, 2026, ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices reached USD 1,944.20 per metric ton unit, up 74.6% from the beginning of the year , reflecting structural supply tightness and geopolitical urgency.
Critical minerals including rare earths and tungsten are now central to U.S.-China strategic competition in 2026 , and Vietnam's mineral assets have become a focal point for both powers' supply chain resilience strategies. However, Hanoi's accelerated "bamboo diplomacy" has deepened engagement with both Washington and Beijing, increasing Vietnam's dependence on—and vulnerability to—each great power, risking that Vietnam becomes trapped between the superpowers rather than becoming a swing state .
Vietnam's Nui Phao tungsten mine, operated by Masan High-Tech Materials, accounts for nearly 30% of global tungsten resources outside China and positions Vietnam as the world's second-largest tungsten producer . This strategic positioning creates a critical inflection point in U.S.-China competition for defense-critical minerals. As of February 28, 2026, ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices reached USD 1,944.20 per metric ton unit, up 74.6% from the beginning of the year , reflecting structural supply tightness and geopolitical urgency.
Critical minerals including rare earths and tungsten are now central to U.S.-China strategic competition in 2026 , and Vietnam's mineral assets have become a focal point for both powers' supply chain resilience strategies. However, Hanoi's accelerated "bamboo diplomacy" has deepened engagement with both Washington and Beijing, increasing Vietnam's dependence on—and vulnerability to—each great power, risking that Vietnam becomes trapped between the superpowers rather than becoming a swing state .
- Tungsten Supply Concentration Creates Strategic Leverage
China accounts for approximately 82% of global tungsten output and controls nearly 90% of APT processing capacity . Since February 2025, China has tightened export controls, cutting export volumes by about 17% in the first half of the year . This concentration creates a structural supply deficit that elevates Vietnam's Nui Phao mine from a commodity asset to a geopolitical asset. These developments have forced U.S., European, and Japanese corporations to seek alternative supply sources—including Vietnam .
- Masan's Mine Sale Signals Geopolitical Contestation
Vietnam conglomerate Masan Group is considering a sale of the Nui Phao Tungsten mining and refining complex in northern Vietnam to Chinese buyers . This transaction carries profound geopolitical implications: with tungsten central to advanced manufacturing and defense supply chains, any transaction will carry geopolitical significance . The sale effort occurs precisely when the trend of critical mineral stockpiling accelerates and many countries now regard critical minerals as a cornerstone of economic and defense security, particularly amid prolonged technological rivalry and geopolitical tensions .
- U.S. Strategy Emphasizes Allied Coordination Over Domestic Sourcing
On January 15, 2026, President Trump signed a critical minerals executive order emphasizing international cooperation to strengthen U.S. minerals security, with the United States fully import-dependent for 12 critical minerals and reliant on imports for more than half of its consumption of an additional 29 . The Trump administration is pushing to build a 55-country critical minerals alliance to coordinate supply and pricing for niche metals vital to technology and defense . However, processing capacity is the true bottleneck China controls , not raw ore extraction.
- Vietnam's Balancing Strategy Prioritizes Autonomy Over Alignment
Vietnam remains open to foreign investment in exploration, mining, and refining projects on terms that support its domestic industrial upgrading, and by focusing on its own rare earth capabilities rather than U.S.-led coalitions, Vietnam aims to enhance its economic leverage without formally aligning with any geopolitical bloc . In April 2025, China and Vietnam agreed to consider cooperation in the field of key minerals in accordance with each country's legal regulations and industrial policies , signaling parallel engagement with Beijing.
- Defense Demand Drives Structural Price Support
Over the next few years, defence is moderate-to-high confidence to be the main driver of demand for tungsten. The tungsten market is poised for structural tightness through 2030, with prices moderate-to-high confidence stabilizing at elevated levels . This structural demand creates a multi-year window for Vietnam to consolidate its position as a non-China supplier.