China's Rare Earth Chokehold: November 2026 Deadline Reshapes EV and Defense Supply Chains

China controls over 90% of global refined neodymium-praseodymium and nearly all separated heavy rare earths, converting structural supply dominance into active trade leverage through a permanent export licensing regime introduced in April 2025. Western manufacturers face a critical inflection point in November 2026 when a suspension agreement expires; absent extension or geopolitical improvement, a return to full controls would trigger acute shortages across automotive and defense sectors. Allied processing capacity is unlikely to close the gap before 2028, while defense contractors face a 2027 DFARS traceability deadline that creates immediate sourcing pressure. Rare-earth-free motor alternatives remain 4–7 years from mass production, leaving EV makers structurally exposed through the early 2030s.