Magnet Rare Earths: Neodymium-Praseodymium Supply Risk and Permanent Magnet Alternatives

China controls approximately 92% of refined NdPr supply and between 98-99% of separated heavy rare earths including dysprosium and terbium, and Beijing's April 2025 export licensing regime has converted that structural fact into an active geopolitical instrument, with direct consequences for EV production timelines and defense procurement security. The controls introduced a permanent licensing architecture that has survived two diplomatic cycles intact: the evidence strongly suggests that the core elements of China's export control regime are permanent features of global trade rather than temporary measures, with the progression from reactive trade countermeasure to institutionalized licensing architecture indicating that Western manufacturers should plan on the basis that these controls will remain in place. The supply chain response is real but delayed, with allied capacity low confidence to close the processing gap before 2028 at the earliest. Supply-chain/operations: Map your tier-2 magnet dependencies by element now; heavy rare earths (dysprosium, terbium) face structural supply denial to defense end-users, while NdPr faces cyclical pricing risk pending China's H2 quota announcement. Risk officers/investors: The November 2026 suspension expiry is your primary risk horizon. If the agreement lapses without an extension, or if geopolitical conditions deteriorate before then, a return to full October 2025 controls would trigger acute shortages across automotive and electronics supply chains. Defense/OEM procurement: Lockheed Martin and peers face a 2027 DFARS deadline requiring full traceability to the mining level; qualifying domestic sources now, before the mandate takes effect, avoids a compliance cliff. China's processing lock on NdPr and heavy rare earths will not be materially loosened before 2028, making the November 2026 expiry of the October 2025 suspension the single most consequential near-term inflection for both the EV and defense industries.