Executive Summary
This assessment concludes with HIGH confidence (80-90%) that the surge in tungsten demand driven by global defense budget increases is fundamentally reshaping critical mineral supply chains, creating severe strategic vulnerabilities for nations dependent on concentrated sources like Vietnam. China's export controls on tungsten products since February 2025, combined with a 9.4% increase in global defense spending to $2.72 trillion in 2024 and unprecedented R&D allocations of $179 billion in the U.S. Pentagon's 2026 budget, have driven tungsten prices from $300 per metric ton unit in early 2025 to over $2,250 by April 2026—a 557% increase . Vietnam's position as the world's second-largest tungsten producer, producing 3,400 metric tons annually through the strategically critical Nui Phao mine, exemplifies the processing bottleneck vulnerabilities that limit alternative supply chain development despite possessing significant ore reserves.